The Miami Hurricanes are having their best season ever. They are about to win the ACC regular season crown with a record of 23-5 and 14-2 in the ACC. They hold a two game lead over the Duke Blue Devils and gave them all they could handle in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. So why do we think they’ll be out of the NCAA Tournament early? Several reasons.

1. Inexperience. Miami has not been in the NCAA Tournament since 2008. That means nobody on the roster has played in the NCAA Tournament before. The NCAA is a pressure cooker where one bad game sends you home. Miami has yet to deal with that.

2. Miami is really good, but at times plays down to their competition. They’ve lost to Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State, Wake Forest and have had close calls with Boston College, N.C. State, Florida State and Virginia. If they do that in the NCAA Tournament, then they could be in trouble with the added pressure.

3. The Canes probably peaked already. They beat Duke, Florida State and North Carolina all by over 25 points in a five game stretch. They were playing at their best in that span. Lately, the Hurricanes have lost two of three and the three games in between the two stretches were three close wins over FSU, Clemson and UVa.

Miami will likely be a number one or two seed in the tournament. Our guess is they will be a two-seed unless they win the ACC Tournament. With a healthy Ryan Kelly back, we like Duke for that. So a two seed puts the Canes with a 15 in the Round of 64 and then a 7 or 10 in the Round of 32. Should they get a seven, they could be facing a tough team such as Illinois, Oregon, Oklahoma or Missouri. We could see them losing in a game with any of them.

Even if they get past that round and in to the Sweet Sixteen, they could be looking at a #3. Now you are talking teams such as Michigan State, who owes UM some payback. That is about as far as Miami will get. But that is nothing to hang their heads about. That is still a very good year for the Hurricanes.